Research: Bitcoin Trading Dynamics Is Not Dependent On Season

Growth or decline in the bitcoin trading volumes does not depend on the season, according to the analytical resource CoinMetrics.io.

On Twitter, the researchers published the statistics on the first cryptocurrency for the period from 2014 to 2018, which demonstrates that bitcoin is not subject to seasonality — unlike equities, trading volumes of which decline significantly in the summer months.

Are Bitcoin exchange volumes seasonal? I.e. are they markedly lower in the summer months, as with equities? A brief investigation.

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018

First, the analysts studied the market data taking into account the trends of price increase and correction, to which bitcoin was exposed in certain years. In these statistics, the curves for 2014–2016 and 2018 do not fluctuate a lot, indicating stable trading volumes of the cryptocurrency throughout the year. At the same time, in 2014 this figure dropped to $10 million, and in early 2018 it exceeded $10 billion.

First, here are the raw numbers, formatted on a log view, because volumes are radically different between 2014 and 2018. Hmm... no obvious trend pic.twitter.com/bZdhEfwTKl

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) October 28, 2018

By the end of 2017, the trading volume of the first cryptocurrency has rapidly increased from one to ten billion dollars. However, this is not due to the time of year, but to the bitcoin’s all-time high of $20,000.

CoinMetrics.io failed to detect a clear trend, so in the second study, the analysts tried to offset the bitcoin trends. For this purpose, they converted the trading volumes into a percentage of the total network capitalization (which amounts to more than $112 billion, according to CoinMarketCap as of October 29) and found out that the average figure remains almost unchanged throughout the year. Thus, a particular time of the year does not affect the bitcoin trading volumes on crypto exchanges.

Source: CoinMarketCap

The researchers also noted that the volume of bitcoin purchases and sales increases every year with the growth of the token’s market capitalization.

Previously, a report by the company DeVere Group showed that bitcoin can lose its leadership with the growth of the crypto market.